Why does the US trust China
with nuclear weapons and not India?
By Stanley
A. Weiss
Gstaad,
Switzerland
If America's
Asia policy were a movie, China would be cast in the part of the favoured
elder child, who the audience knows is a rogue but who can do no wrong
in the eyes of the parents. India would be the younger, morally superior
sibling, a bit of a nag, who strives in vain for approval. By the end of
the film, the family would have narrowly averted some tragedy and everyone
would be reconciled through meditation and acupuncture.
Unfortunately,
the dangerous scenario setting itself up in Asia is no movie. It is real
life in the real world.
Indian government
officials, policy analysts and military and business leaders I met recently
in New Delhi are quite rightly puzzled and frustrated by the double standard
that the United States applies in the region. Why, they wonder, does America
pander to China, the world's largest autoritarian state, and patronise
India, the world's largest democracy?
The prickly US-Indian
relationship only got worse when New Delhi conducted its nuclear tests
last May. Now, eight rounds of talks between US deputy secretary of state
Strobe Talbott and Indian external affairs minister Jaswant Singh have
led to a four-step US proposal for lifting economic sanctions imposed after
the explosions. Washington wants India to stop all nuclear testing, halt
production of fissile material, halt missile testing and strengthen export
controls.
But India, unlike
China, has never shared its nuclear technology with another nation.
Defence minister
George Fernandes told me: "We have announced that we will not test
any more nuclear weapons. We have stated clearly a 'no first use' strategy.
We are ready to participate in negotiations for a Fissile Materials Cutoff
Treaty. And we will continue stringent controls on our nuclear and weapons
technology.
"However,
we intend to keep testing until we are satisfied that we have a dependable
medium-range, 3,000kilometre missile, a credible minimum deterrent. I would
ask President Clinton only one question: 'Why do you feel you can trust
China with nuclear weapons but you cannot trust India?'"
China has stepped
up its nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities. Russia and the United
States intend to dismantle the most destabilising nuclear weapons, their
intercontinental ballistic missiles with multiple warheads, but China continues
developing them.
China has a minimum
of 400 nuclear warheads and is building at least 20 mobile ICBMs topped
with one-megaton warheads that can target any Indian (or American) city.
Unlike India,
which never joined the non-proliferation treaty, China made a binding international
commitment not to assist any nonnuclear weapons states, yet it continued
to help Pakistan in developing its nuclear weapon and ballistic missile
programs.
Washington has
largely turned a blind eye to this and other Chinese violations of the
treaty, while sticking to the letter of the law in denying India access
to critical safety-related equipment and spare parts for its ageing, hazardous
civilian nuclear power plants.
China appears
to want a modern version of the Middle Kingdom to which all other Asians
will have to bow. Besides hemming India in with a nuclear Pakistan to the
west, it has stockpiled nuclear weapons in Tibet, just across India's northern
border. To the east, it is providing military and economic aid to Burma
for espionage operations against India.
Some experts
see a systematic effort to gain a military toehold in the Bay of Bengal,
the Andaman Sea, the Gulf of Thailand and the South China Sea in order
to control the Malacca Strait, through which more than one-sixth of world
trade passes.
A strong, non
aggressive India would be a counterweight to China.
Washington appears
ready to accelerate efforts to develop a new partnership with India based
on what the two great nations have in common: A democratic political tradition
and a legitimate fear of any one nation dominating Asia. Mr. Talbott recently
said: "India can continue to serve as an important reminder to China
that democracy is not only possible but also necessary."
If the United
States wants a story-book ending in its relationship with China and India,
all three nations will have to work for it, not just sit back and wait
for the closing credits to roll.
Stanley A.
Weiss is founder and chairman of Business Executives for National Security,
an organisation of US business leaders. By arrangement with the International
Herald Tribune
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