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Why does the US trust China with nuclear weapons and not India?

By Stanley A. Weiss

Gstaad, Switzerland

If America's Asia policy were a movie, China would be cast in the part of the favoured elder child, who the audience knows is a rogue but who can do no wrong in the eyes of the parents. India would be the younger, morally superior sibling, a bit of a nag, who strives in vain for approval. By the end of the film, the family would have narrowly averted some tragedy and everyone would be reconciled through meditation and acupuncture.

Unfortunately, the dangerous scenario setting itself up in Asia is no movie. It is real life in the real world.

Indian government officials, policy analysts and military and business leaders I met recently in New Delhi are quite rightly puzzled and frustrated by the double standard that the United States applies in the region. Why, they wonder, does America pander to China, the world's largest autoritarian state, and patronise India, the world's largest democracy?

The prickly US-Indian relationship only got worse when New Delhi conducted its nuclear tests last May. Now, eight rounds of talks between US deputy secretary of state Strobe Talbott and Indian external affairs minister Jaswant Singh have led to a four-step US proposal for lifting economic sanctions imposed after the explosions. Washington wants India to stop all nuclear testing, halt production of fissile material, halt missile testing and strengthen export controls.

But India, unlike China, has never shared its nuclear technology with another nation.

Defence minister George Fernandes told me: "We have announced that we will not test any more nuclear weapons. We have stated clearly a 'no first use' strategy. We are ready to participate in negotiations for a Fissile Materials Cutoff Treaty. And we will continue stringent controls on our nuclear and weapons technology.

"However, we intend to keep testing until we are satisfied that we have a dependable medium-range, 3,000kilometre missile, a credible minimum deterrent. I would ask President Clinton only one question: 'Why do you feel you can trust China with nuclear weapons but you cannot trust India?'"

China has stepped up its nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities. Russia and the United States intend to dismantle the most destabilising nuclear weapons, their intercontinental ballistic missiles with multiple warheads, but China continues developing them.

China has a minimum of 400 nuclear warheads and is building at least 20 mobile ICBMs topped with one-megaton warheads that can target any Indian (or American) city.

Unlike India, which never joined the non-proliferation treaty, China made a binding international commitment not to assist any nonnuclear weapons states, yet it continued to help Pakistan in developing its nuclear weapon and ballistic missile programs.

Washington has largely turned a blind eye to this and other Chinese violations of the treaty, while sticking to the letter of the law in denying India access to critical safety-related equipment and spare parts for its ageing, hazardous civilian nuclear power plants.

China appears to want a modern version of the Middle Kingdom to which all other Asians will have to bow. Besides hemming India in with a nuclear Pakistan to the west, it has stockpiled nuclear weapons in Tibet, just across India's northern border. To the east, it is providing military and economic aid to Burma for espionage operations against India.

Some experts see a systematic effort to gain a military toehold in the Bay of Bengal, the Andaman Sea, the Gulf of Thailand and the South China Sea in order to control the Malacca Strait, through which more than one-sixth of world trade passes.

A strong, non aggressive India would be a counterweight to China.

Washington appears ready to accelerate efforts to develop a new partnership with India based on what the two great nations have in common: A democratic political tradition and a legitimate fear of any one nation dominating Asia. Mr. Talbott recently said: "India can continue to serve as an important reminder to China that democracy is not only possible but also necessary."

If the United States wants a story-book ending in its relationship with China and India, all three nations will have to work for it, not just sit back and wait for the closing credits to roll.

 Stanley A. Weiss is founder and chairman of Business Executives for National Security, an organisation of US business leaders. By arrangement with the International Herald Tribune

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