The month long nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Extension Review Conference (XRC) that concludes May 19 in New York has little to show in terms of substantive progress on the contentious issue of nuclear weapons and their relevance in the post-cold war years. The five nuclear weapon powers only reiterated their ``unequivocal'' commitment to disarmament -- as mandated in the NPT -- and their reluctance to provide any tangible time-frame is more a reflection of the geo-political contradictions and techno-strategic complexities that are embedded in the nuclear issue. Concurrently, the XRC also has a distinctive Asian and Indian relevance and thus the talk-shop in New York and the manner in which the narrative is both constructed and interpreted are matters of import in shaping the Indian nuclear posture. 

The NPT entered into force on March 5, 1970 and is often cited as a central pillar of global stability. Its objectives were to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and related technology, to promote co-operation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy and to further the goal of achieving nuclear disarmament. The treaty has a chequered evolution and paradoxically none of the objectives have been realised. Yet the hype extols the many positive attributes of the NPT that in essence reflect the perpetuation of the perennial great game of power. 

Global Stability 

Today the packaging that comes with the NPT describes it as a landmark treaty that has near universal compliance. It merits recall that while the US, the former USSR and the UK were original signatories among the states that had acquired nuclear weapons prior to 1970, China and France came on board the treaty only in 1992. This treaty was extended indefinitely in 1995 in a manner whose procedural rectitude was itself debatable -- but is a continuation of the adage that power shapes legal norms. The extension was not without conditions and obligations on the part of the nuclear weapon states -- the US, Russia, China, France and the UK whose nuclear weapon status and exclusivity were both enshrined and legitimised by the NPT. 

The rhetoric that envelops the XRC is based on two principal assertions, first -- that the NPT as it exists, is central to global stability and must be strengthened by seeking universal adherence; and, second, -- the NWS are acting in good faith as far as disarmament is concerned but the route they are adopting is one of cautious arms control treaties and mutual arms reduction. This has become the dominant narrative of post-Cold War nuclear discourse and the short sound bite is that an inherently discriminatory arrangement that accords all the privileges to a select few and allows them to hold the global community hostage to apocalyptic destruction either by accident or design is the new mantra for global stability. Little or no mention is allowed to enter the discourse that this is an inherently dishonourable route of dubious ethical mooring and thus we have a narrative domain wherein the power compulsion shapes not only the reality-contour and legal norms but also the theological underpinning. 

Diminished Status 

But when we contrast what may be termed the virtual power-reality about the post-Cold War nuclear world with a true ground reality check, the anomalies and contradictions abound -- these chickens are coming home to roost in New York. For a start, the centrality of the nuclear weapon in the security matrix of the major powers has not been reduced at all. On the contrary, the emphasis on the nuke has only increased. For instance, the revised NATO Strategic Concept of 1999 noted that ``the supreme guarantee of the security of the Allies is provided by the strategic nuclear forces of the Alliance.'' 

The NATO assertion has led to a predictable response from Moscow which has long been uneasy with its diminished status in the face of increasing western military presence on its periphery. It is significant that when the Russian President, Mr Vladimir Putin, won his election, one of his first acts was to visit a Russian nuclear city and reiterate the importance of this capability for Moscow -- and the need to modernise the same. Embedded in this declaration is the Russian discomfort over the US intention to test and field a national missile defence (NMD) system -- a project that will entail amending the 1972 ABM -- anti ballistic missile treaty. The NMD despite technical misgivings has considerable political support in the US and has a budget of US $60 billion over the next 25 years. Despite its public posture of arms reduction, the US has also decided to refurbish 6,000 nuclear warheads as part of an `active reserve' to hedge against any uncertainties. 

Nuclear Nettle But it is the Asian strand that must concern us the most. The current nuclear developments and blurred truths are the equivalent of a multiple chess game being played at two levels that are inter-connected in a non-linear manner. At the primary level is the US-Russia pas de deux which will no doubt influence the Chinese posture -- over the size of the arsenals being maintained, their qualitative nature and the ultimate impact of NMDs per se on Beijing's strategic capabilities. Within Asia, the picture is even more complex. India and Pakistan post-May 1998 are states with nuclear weapons -- SNWs -- even if the NPT will not admit them as NWS. Israel and North Korea continue to be grey states in more ways than one and their relevance in the regional nuclear discourse cannot be ignored. The abiding leitmotif here is the pattern of China providing ballistic missile and nuclear weapon know-how in Asia and encouraging proliferation for its own strategic reasons. 

Thus the mismatch between the virtual reality that will be asserted by the NWS in New York to assuage their own insecurities and the true post-Cold War ground reality will be contained in the manner in which the narrative is shaped and packaged -- a reiteration of the Foucauldian tenet that ultimately discourse is the power which is to be seized. India would be well advised to contribute to the New York discourse and not be painted into a corner as the core of the post-Cold War nuclear nettle.