Lockups keep info accurate

By Larry Dreiling

From soil temperatures to futures prices to cattle weights, agriculture is dominated by numbers.

Making sense of all those numbers is one thing, but making sure those numbers are correct in the first place is another matter entirely.

The staff of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) and their international measurement counterpart, the World Agricultural Outlook Board, are charged with making sure the numbers in the industry are accurate. With so much discussion lately about government's role in the lives of everyday Americans, organizations such as NASS and WAOB have been making an even more concerted effort to make sure those who use their information know it is accurate, unbiased and tamper-proof.

The service compiles the market-sensitive data for monthly crop production, dairy products prices, hogs and pigs, cotton ginnings and cattle-on-feed reports, along with seasonal planted acreage, prospective plantings and grain stocks reports. Since anyone having early access to this information would have an obvious heads up in the trading pits of Chicago, Kansas City, Minneapolis or New York, NASS takes painstaking measures to prevent it.

Recently, members of North American Agricultural Journalists--including this reporter--were invited to look behind the scenes at the compilation of a crop production report and to get a first-hand account at the security procedures designed to prevent the leakage of market-sensitive data.

Much of the public's knowledge about the compilation and transmission of these kinds of reports comes from the hit 1983 movie comedy Trading Places. In the film, two elderly billionaire brothers attempt to corner the futures market in Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice by stealing a USDA crop report. Their plot is foiled when the real report is switched with a fake one.

Not only was the report the brothers received a fake, but so was the portrayal of how the report was released to the public.

The mere mention of the movie is a source of great discomfort to NASS employees, who work hard to make certain that nothing like the movie plot could ever happen. Even in the days when reports were sent in special mailing envelopes to Washington and not by encrypted e-mail, security was tight.

Suffice to say, there is no one at NASS remotely like the movie's shady security man, Clarence Beaks, handling the precious report. Instead, there are persons like Rich Allen, NASS associate administrator, supervising a small band of persons working on the reports. A long-time veteran of NASS, Allen and the other dedicated employees there take pride in their security efforts, much as if they were protecting the nation's nuclear secrets.

"Years ago, a group of students led by Ralph Nader-remember 'Nader's Raiders'-concluded that it was harder to get any secrets out of the USDA than from anywhere else in the government. That included the Department of Defense," Allen said.

While the fictitious Mr. Beaks was shipped off to Africa in a cage wearing a gorilla suit with a amorous real gorilla for company, NASS employees found guilty of disclosing information before the release of a report face a $10,000 fine or 10 years in prison, or both.

To ensure that everyone interested in the reports gets their hands on them at the same time, NASS conducts what are called "lockups" 16 times a year within a fifth-floor corner wing of USDA's South Building on Independence Ave., in Washington. Once inside a lockup, no one may leave--hence the term. The only way any one may leave is in an emergency and then they must be escorted by a member of the Federal Protective Service (FPS) until the report is released.

During these lockups, elevators are shut off, stairs are locked, telephone lines are disconnected, doors are locked and bolted at one end of the corner, while an armed member of the FPS stands vigil at the other.

That door where the guard is posted actually is a series of two doors separated by a small space. The first door opens on the right hand of the hallway, with the second door opening on the left. This prevents persons on the other side of the door from seeing signs, placards or hand signals.

NASS's network for Internet access is shut down and computer systems are secured against tampering by use of a single file server connected by Local Area Network to terminals in offices within the lockup.

Opaque vinyl window shades laced with wire mesh reinforcers are drawn over the more than 50 windows in the lockup to prevent surveillance by electronic and visual means outside the lockup. The shades are then sealed with a wire crimp embossing tool to prevent tampering. A scanner to detect electronic bugs from within also is switched on. This means that cellular phones and pagers are not permitted in the lockup

"We began preparing for the lockup at 2:30 a.m.," explained Brad Schwab, NASS deputy administrator for programs and products. Schwab supervises the security apparatus behind the lockup. "Depending upon the time of the year and how much we have to do during the night, we come in as early as 10:30 p.m., in order to make the release time of 8:30 a.m. I go through a detailed checklist of everything I need to do to make sure I don't miss anything."

The gist of each report is compiled by state NASS offices. The day before a national commodity report is released, the state offices involved file their reports via e-mail--encrypted by AT&T's Secret Agent software--with the Washington corner office. Upon transmission, the encoded data are saved on diskettes, which are placed in pouches, marked with the signatures of the chairman of National Agricultural Statistics Board, Schwab and a witness before sealing, then locked in a safe. The files are then purged from the system.

Once the lockup area is secured, Schwab removes the diskettes from the safe and decrypts the files. Once that happens, NASS analysts pore over the data to make the official estimates. That also can include statisticians from the state offices who will join in the lockup, on the average of once a year.

The analysts for NASS and its counterpart on assessing international data, the World Agricultural Outlook Board, each sit in rooms called a BAT room, an acronym for Board Analysis and Training. Admidst the oak paneled walls of the BAT rooms, there is a futuristic look. In each room, there is a large conference table, with a built-in computer workstation at each seat.

"There may be eight to 10 people sitting around a table discussing the estimates for each individual commodity," Schwab said. "They each have their own vote, so to speak. They do an average of all these people, so no one person cannot unduly influence that particular estimate for that month. It is rare that the national figure differs from the state figures, but can happen."

The state figures are compiled by the individual state statistics services using telephone and in-field surveys, counts and observations. Allen adds, "While each person has their own workstation, they all look at the same file, such as, say, Nebraska corn. Each person comes up with their own interpretation, but then they get together for the actual estimate."

The statisticians finish their work as early as they can, but no later than 7 a.m., so the report can be composed and printed at the lockup's own print shop for distribution at 8:30 a.m. Diskettes with the report also are distributed to news service reporters in a guarded press room, who will format the information to suit their needs.

Prior to the distribution of the diskettes, the reporters must be in the lockup by 6:45 a.m. to test their phone lines. At 7 a.m., the phone lines once again are shut off and the reporters receive the diskettes. At 8:29 a.m., Schwab re-establishes the reporters phone lines for story filing at precisely 8:30 a.m. Eastern time.

At 8:30 a.m. to the second, reporters from all major business news services send their stories down their lines.

"It is interesting to see the news terminals come alive as those stories go directly onto the wires," Schwab said.

Shortly before the reporters file their stories, Secretary of Agriculture Dan Glickman, accompanied by USDA chief economist Keith Collins, enter the lockup. They are greeted by Fred Vogel, chairperson of the National Agricultural Statistics Board, and Gerald Bange, chairperson of the World Agricultural Outlook Board, which also is presenting a monthly global situation report on this morning.

Vogel and Bange have been in the lockup all night leading their teams in making the estimates, a summary of which is placed in a briefing room for Glickman to sign, in order to make the report an official part of the USDA record The lockup now is concluded. While Schwab begins to unlock the corner, Vogel and Bange then begin an off-the-record briefing about the estimates for Glickman's behalf.

Even after the briefing is over, Glickman and Collins cannot immediately discuss the reports, since they are parts of the nation's index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEIs). All federal agencies have a one-hour "no-spin" rule, Allen said, in order for the media time to distribute the report, as well as allow private analysts to speak about the reports and commodity markets to shake out the data.

The NASS staff, meanwhile, calls it a day after pulling this all-nighter.